The Super Rugby conference system is destined for the scrapheap in 2021, and though they've signed up for it all the way along, the Kiwis will be the happiest.
The obvious flaw in the Super Rugby conference system continues to be that the Hurricanes will again meet the Crusaders in the semi-finals (1 v 4), if home wins occur in all the quarters.
The Canes finished “second” with 53 points but were relegated to fourth under the current system, and though they’ll get a home final, they’ll have to travel for week two if the Crusaders get up too.
But aside from that wrinkle, the final standings on the Super Rugby ladder were among the most fair-dinkum since the conference system began in 2011.
FOUR DINKUM
For the uninitiated, each conference gets a home final in week one regardless of whether they’ve won enough games to be actually placed in the top three/four.
Yes it sounds odd but everyone signed up to ensure all nations get guaranteed finals action and keep sponsors/TV companies happy.
The format has seen sides - often Aussie ones, it must be said - finishing “third” despite only having enough points to finish seventh or eighth.
But this year, for the first time since 2014, all the sides in the top four - the Crusaders, Jaguares, Brumbies and Hurricanes - were the legit top four sides, albeit with the ordering issue.
(Top four replaced top three in 2016).
In 2018, two sides with “top four” point tallies were relegated below the line due to the conference system, and so too in 2017 and 2016.
In fact, the 2019 season is only the fourth time since Super Rugby introduced the conference system in 2011 that the top three/four is occupied by the four teams with the most points.
The others were 2011, 2013 and 2014, and here’s an omen - Australian teams played in the final in all those years and won two from three.
HOME COMFORTS
Why does the conference system-assisted top four matter so much?
Home finals. Pure and simple.
In a competition that spans oceans, long-haul travel across multiple timezones has proven time and time again to be too tough for the visiting team.
It brings days lost in tin cans, jetlag, sleep patterns, reduced training etcetera.
The record books speak for themselves.
The Super Rugby minor premier (i.e the one who gets to stay at home if they keep winning), has claimed the title 15 times in 23 seasons.
The winner has come from the top two teams (i.e home semi-finalists) in 20 of 23 seasons.
And the host of the Super Rugby final has won it 17 times in 23 seasons.
Predictably, the Crusaders are the exception and have won four titles on the road.
But it’s worth pointing out that despite many attempts by many teams, the Saders are the only team since 1996 to have crossed an ocean and later that week won a Super Rugby final away (against the Lions in 2017).
SEMI SERIOUS
Home ground advantage - and the zero travel advantage - is no less important at the semi-final stage.
Certainly in recent times, anyway.
Since 2016, those teams who’ve been a “top four” side but had to travel away for a quarter-final have tended to keep flexing their muscle and win on the road in week one of the playoffs.
But come week two, the travel factor kicks in. All six semi-finals since 2016 have been won by the host.
CHEERING CHIEFS
What does all of this mean for 2019? Can the Brumbies buck the trend or will are the finals a formality before Crusaders coach Scott Roberston starts up his post-title breakdancing again?
History says the latter.
But there are a few different factors to consider in 2019, too.
The Brumbies’ best chance of going deep into the finals is to obviously beat the Sharks in their quarter on Saturday night - travel is in their favour and so too, momentum. The Sharks haven’t won successive games since round one and two.
But prior to that, they’ll hope the Chiefs can knock off the Jaguares in Buenos Aires. The Argentinians are in good form but so too are the Chiefs, and the Kiwis are 2 wins from 2 trips to BA; including a win earlier this year.
If both those results unfold, the Brumbies can host a semi-final a week later against the now-travel weary Chiefs.
That’s best case, of course, but not out of the question.
BULLISH BRUMBIES
If the Brumbies win their quarter-final and have to travel to play against the Jaguares, the journey won’t frighten them as much as others.For some reason the Brumbies thrive on the road, and have they’ve even won big finals away from home.
In 2013 they beat the Bulls in Pretoria in a semi-final and they also beat the Stormers in Cape Town in the 2015 quarters.
Since that win, they’ve won four from six in South Africa and this year only just lost 20-15 to the Jaguares in BA after a win over the Stormers a week earlier in CT.
CRUSADER CREAK?
But seriously, can anyone beat the Crusaders?
It must be said they’re not going into these finals with the same sort of momentum and trajectory as last year, where they won 11 in a row leading into the finals.
This year they’ve drawn twice and lost two games in their last 11 outings.
Heading into next weekend’s clash with the Highlanders, they’re coming off a loss to the Chiefs, a 66-0 win over the Rebels and a bye.
So it’s been anything but smooth but hey, it’s the Crusaders.
If you're going to bet against them, make sure it's someone else's money.
The Brumbies take on the Bulls in a Super Rugby quarter-final at GIO Stadium on Saturday June 22, kicking off at 7:45pm AEST, LIVE on FOX SPORTS, Kayo and via RUGBY.com.au RADIO. Tickets go on sale on Tuesday June 18 at 12:30pm AEST. More info here.
