Rugby World Cup 2023: The victory blueprint for every quarter-finalist heading into the knockout stage

Thu, Oct 12, 2023, 2:19 PM
Nathan Williamson
by Nathan Williamson
The All Blacks are statistically the most lethal attacking team left in the World Cup. Photo: Getty Images
The All Blacks are statistically the most lethal attacking team left in the World Cup. Photo: Getty Images

The quarter-finals for Rugby World Cup 2023 are set to get underway as all eight teams hunt for the Webb Ellis Cup.

There's no room for second chances with four evenly-poised quarter-finals locked in for Saint-Denis and Marseille

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Each team has their own unique style, which is reflected in the statistical breakdown when comparing the remaining teams to each other.

Certain teams like New Zealand have produced monster attacking performances whilst sides such as Wales have built their title credentials on their impressive defence.

Using this data provided by World Rugby and Opta from the group stages, Rugby.com.au looks at the key to victory for every side at this year's World Cup.

Argentina - Turning ruck speed into points

Los Pumas tops the remaining eight teams in terms of territory (56%) and ruck speed (3.37 seconds), showing they thrive off quick, consistent attacking pressure.

37% of their rucks last under two seconds and the effect this has on opposition defence is evident, sitting second for defenders beaten (32.5).

Whilst they had the fewest red-zone entries of the sides left (9.0 per game), they are the third most efficient, averaging 3.14 points per entry.

For them to succeed, they need this speed to translate on the defensive side of the ruck. They were comfortably the lowest team in terms of turnovers won (3.8 p.g), 1.5 less than the next worst and almost three less than the average.

England - Kicking into gear

It's unsurprising to note that the English have the most kicks in play (33.8 per game), kicking away 68% of possession, 14% higher than the average for the other seven teams.

What may come as a shock is just how high their possession time is, averaging 17 minutes, 54 seconds, the second highest.

It means England are one of the more disciplined teams left with the third least turnovers conceded (12.8) and the second-highest positive outcomes of their possessions (74%).

They can't afford to be drawn into the Fijian style of play, with the second-fewest carries (108.8 p.g), fewest offloads (5.8) and third-worst gain-line success (51%).

Fiji - Play to strengths

Speaking of Fiji, their success naturally comes when they keep the ball alive in attack.

Even with their disappointing finish to the group stages, they recorded the most carries (139.5 p.g), second most offloads (11.3) and second-best collision dominance (45%) of the remaining sides.

They have the widest play of the eight teams, 59% of plays wider than the ten metres previous from the breakdown whilst winning the most turnovers (8.0 p.g)

This comes at a cost, with the joint-most turnovers conceded with South Africa (17 p.g) as well as the worst red zone efficiency (1.66 points per entry). This is telling when looking at the lineout, with their 81% success rate the worst of the remaining teams.

France - Clinical playmaking

France has the lowest possession time of the quarter-finals (14 min, 50 sec) but has shown it's not how much ball you have, it's what you do with it that counts.

Despite the lack of time, they have recorded the most offloads (11.8 per game), the second most linebreaks (10.5 p.g) and the least penalties (8.0 p.g) and second least turnovers (12.5) conceded.

Their efficiency is also elite, requiring the fewest phases to score (23.8) on the third most (13.8) entries into the opposition 22.

They are seventh for gain-line success (51%) but this is offset by the highest collision dominance relative to their carries (48%).

Ireland - Converting their pressure

Ireland's success is built around getting into the right areas of the field better than anyone else.

They have the most entries (15.3 per game) of the remaining teams, with 33% of possessions ending in the opposition's 22 whilst scoring the second most points from entries (46.8).

This comes off the back of the second most metres made (584.3) and the third most line breaks (9.3), defenders beaten (27.5) and gain-line success (56%)

However, their set-piece has struggled, ranked sixth of the last eight teams for scrum (90%) and seventh for lineout (81%) success, averaging three stolen per game

New Zealand - Dominate the gain-line

The All Blacks' stats are largely inflated thanks to three thumping victories but it still provides a pretty clear insight into how they were take on the Irish.

They have had the best gain-line success with their carries (66%), and also the most at an average of 88.8 per game along with the second most actual dominant collisions (36.0 p.g)

This translates into the most carries (134.8 p.g), metres (752.5) and line breaks (16).

Meanwhile, the Irish have had the most negative collisions (8.0) in attack, with the Kiwis statistically the best team in attack with the fewest misses (13.3)

South Africa - Smother in defence

The Springboks have been excellent in this tournament, although this isn't represented accurately when looking at the stats. This likely reflects the standard of competition faced but paints an interesting picture of where they thrive.

They sit seventh for linebreaks (6.3) and offloads (8.5) whilst seventh for collision dominance (38%).

However, it's their defence that has stood up, making the most dominant tackles (14.8), 4.8 more than next best Argentina, whilst winning the second most turnovers at the breakdown (4.5).

They have also stolen the most lineouts, although the 81% success rate at scrum time is the second worst, probably reflecting the power of the Irish and Scottish packs.

Wales - Efficiency around the park

Wales have built their run on their defence and set-piece, which will prove crucial against Argentina.

The Welsh have made 168.8 tackles per game, 42 more than the next best whilst also operating their scrum at an impressive 98%, losing just one scrum.

They concede the fewest turnovers (11.5 per game) whilst converting with the second-best red zone efficiency (3.72 points).

Naturally, this comes with a lack of possession, last for metres made (450.5) and defenders beaten (20.3) with an average ruck speed of 5.11 seconds, the lowest by far.

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