The Wallabies’ struggles with discipline have been a common theme throughout the 2020s.
The side has drawn the ire of the referee on countless occasions, with 44 cards in their last 48 Tests.
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This includes the last six games and all five under Joe Schmidt as the Wallabies deal with the consequences of increased scrutiny around high contact.
Since 2020, the Wallabies have conceded a card in five or more successive games on three different occasions under Dave Rennie, Eddie Jones and Schmidt.
With the cards continuing to pile, a deep dive into the stats produces some interesting data.
The 44 cards is a figure that instantly stands out but it is only nine more than their opposition has conceded against them.
In fact, the Wallabies conceded two less than their opposition leading into the 2022 season before five multi-card games turned the tide.
Almost a third of those came in the period before or after half-time with high shots and cynical fouls the common reasons for players leaving the field.
Therefore, you’d think the number of cards would have a direct correlation with the result, right?
Not quite.
Remarkable, the Wallabies' record when they picked up two or more cards (six wins, six losses, one draw) is better than their record when they haven’t conceded a card (six wins, ten losses, one draw), with the record between one card and no card is almost identical (6-10-0), largely built off their success in 2021 and 2024.
Two of those six wins have come against the world champion Springboks in 2021 and 2022, with Australia claiming a Bledisloe win in 2020 with Lachlan Swinton (red) and Marika Koroibete (yellow) carded.
So how is this possible?
Well, the stats ultimately don’t tell the entire picture, with the opposition conceding a similar (or higher) amount of cards in four of those six wins.
The timing of the cards is also key, picking up allows in the final minutes of two of those six victories when the game was well and truly decided.
Australia’s record is close to 50% when they concede fewer cards than their opposition but blow out when they are on the other side of the ledger.
Ultimately, the deciding factor is how you manage the player's disadvantage and the overall penalty count.
In those wins, the Wallabies’ defence has often proved the difference, repelling the numbers advantages whilst being able to capitalise when the tide turned their way.
In that Bledisloe win in 2020, the Wallabies didn’t concede a point to the Kiwis down to 13 but scored ten when Scott Barrett joined Ofa Tu’ungafasi in the bin after the prop was sent off.
They conceded once down 13 against Wales in 2022, only to rally for two tries when they dropped to 13 and a third as they returned to 14.
At the end of the day, managing the penalty count and discipline remains a work in progress for the Wallabies regardless of what the trends say.
However, it does show there is a way to win even if you find yourself on the wrong end of the referee’s whistle.
